Americans Divided on a Divided Congress

A poll by YouGov conducted in the days following the 2022 Midterm General Election finds that Americans are split on if they think a divided congress would be a good or bad thing. Many expected this to happen by November 11 than in the weeks leading up to the election where it seemed a sure thing that Republicans would overtake Congress as is typical in a midterm election where the party in the White House usually loses control of Congress. More say that the Democrats exceeded their expectations than will say the same about Republicans.

Republicans disappointing performance this election cycle has not caused all on the right to change their approach to elections. Republicans are just as likely as Democrats to say that they should keep the same strategy in 2024. But, more Republicans are looking to the 2024 Presidential election and more are leading to say they prefer Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the nominee over former President Donald Trump-who for his part publicly attacked DeSantis two days after the Midterm Elections.

The so-called “red-wave” wound up being more of a red puddle. A poll by YouGov and the Economist that concluded the day before Election Day found that Americans were more likely to say that Republicans would win control of the Senate than to say Democrats would. Half of Americans now say that Democrats won more seats than they expected with the Democrats having remained in control of the Senate. A similar number are willing to say that Republicans lost more seats than they expected.

Despite it seeming increasingly likely, many Americans would prefer not to have a divided Congress-with one party controlling the House and the other Senate. Registered Independents are far less likely than Democrats or Republicans to say they prefer a united Congress. As many will say a divided congress is good because one party will provide checks o the others as is likely to say it’s a bad thing. Divided controls is largely seen as a bigger issue to Democrats than Republicans.

Looking ahead to 2024, roughly one third of Democrats and Republicans say their party should use a similar approach as they did this year. While a slightly larger share in each party says to take a different approach. Independents for their part, say each party needs a new approach than to stay the course.

42% of Republicans polled say they would prefer to have DeSantis as the nominee in 2024 than would prefer Trump (35%). A reversal from a month ago when 35% preferred DeSantis to Trump’s 45%. People who say they “strongly” identify as Republican are likely to still prefer Trump, yet are pretty evenly divided. Republican-leaning Independents are two times as likely to prefer DeSantis to Trump.

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