With his victory in the New Hampshire primary, former President Donald Trump cemented his dominance of the Republican Party making it increasingly likely that he will be the 2024 Republican nominee.
He is the preferred nominee of 69% of Republican leaning voters, this from a new poll by Economist/YouGov. His only remaining major rival, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, is the top choice of just 15%, Ron DeSantis dropped out while the poll was being conducted was the top choice of 14%.
47% of Republican-leaning voters say they would be “dissatisfied” or “upset” if Haley as the nominee, as opposed to just 10% who say they would be “enthusiastic” if she won the nomination. Meanwhile, 61% say they would be enthusiastic about Trump being the nominee again, compared to 15% who say they would be upset or dissatisfied.
The support for the former President is nothing new, Trump has had huge leads in the Republican nomination polling from Economist/YouGov since June 2023. His lead has only grown, from 25 points higher than his closest rival in June 2023, to now being 54% ahead go Haley now.
The polling shows that Trump has commanding leads for the nomination in any subgroup of Republican-leaning voters. 68% of all Republican Party voters prefer the former president. 65% who identify as conservative, 57% as moderate or liberal Republicans, and 79% of ‘very conservative’ voters. Among genders, 68% of men and women who lean republican prefer Trump. 72% of 18-45 year olds, and 66% of 45 or older. 73% of non-college gradates and 58% of college graduates prefer the former President.
All this polling seems to suggest that Trump will be on the general election ticket in 2024, and should incumbent President Joe Biden become the nominee on the Democratic Ticket, YouGov/Economist polling suggests that Americans are very closely divided between the two. The newest poll had Trump with 44% of registered voters and Biden at 43%. The two have been tied, or close to it, for months now.