How Do Policies and Expenses Affect Supplemental Poverty Rates?

Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau released data which showed that the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) increased half a percentage point to 12.9% from 2022 to 2023. But how did anti-poverty programs and necessary expenses affect that rate?

A data tool released today shows the extent of the impact of government policy and necessary expenses on SPM poverty in 2023.

Medical expenses moved 7.4 million people into poverty and were the most impactful necessary expense considered in the SPM.

The SPM is different from the official poverty rate because it incorporates cash and noncash government assistance programs such as the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) and accounts for taxes, medical and other necessary expenses.

The data tool shows that Social Security kept 27.6 million people out of poverty and had the largest anti-poverty impact. Medical expenses moved 7.4 million people into poverty and were the most impactful necessary expense considered in the SPM.

Change in Number of People in Supplemental Poverty After Including Each Element: 2023

Visualizing Impact of Programs, Expenses on SPM

The data tool provides statistics on a number of government programs, highlighting how policies and expenses impacted economic well-being for a wider set of demographic characteristics and definitions of poverty.

Using data from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) for 2021 to 2023, the tool allows users to evaluate the antipoverty impact of the following government assistance programs and necessary expenses on poverty estimates:

  • Government assistance. Social Security; refundable tax credits; SNAP; housing subsidies; Supplemental Security Income (SSI); National School Lunch Program; Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and other public assistance; unemployment insurance; and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).
  • Necessary expenses. Work and child care expenses; federal income taxes paid; Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes paid; and medical expenses.

Users can also explore different years of data and select higher or lower poverty thresholds (50%, 100%, 200%, 300%, or 400%) to understand the impacts of programs and expenses across income levels.

Changing Poverty Elements: 2021 to 2023

A key feature of this new tool is that it allows users to explore several years of results.

https://public.tableau.com/views/HowDoDifferentElementsAffecttheSupplementalPovertyMeasure/Dashboard?:showVizHome=no

From 2021 to 2023, the SPM poverty rate increased from 7.8% to 12.9%. The increase largely reflects substantial public investments in 2021 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that were no longer in effect by 2023.

For instance, pandemic-related unemployment insurance (UI) expansions kept 496,500 Black individuals out of poverty in 2021. By 2023, after those expansions had expired, UI only moved 67,200 Black individuals out of poverty.

There were also differences over time unrelated to pandemic assistance.

In 2021, necessary medical expenses increased the percentage of people in poverty by 1.4 percentage points, resulting in an additional 4.7 million people in poverty.

By 2023, these expenses led to an additional 7.4 million people in poverty, increasing the SPM rate by 2.2 percentage points.

Users can explore this increase in the effect of medical expenses on poverty rates across all subgroups.

For example, the SPM poverty rate in 2021 rose by 3.2 percentage points among individuals age 25 or older with no high school diploma when accounting for medical expenses. By 2023, medical expenses led this same group to have an SPM rate that was 4.6 percentage points higher.

Wider Definitions of Poverty

Users can also explore how policies and necessary expenses impact incomes at various degrees of poverty.

For instance, changing the SPM threshold selector to 50% shows results for what is sometimes considered “deep poverty.”

In 2023, the deep poverty rate was 4.4%. Work and child care expenses increased the share of people in deep poverty by 0.2 percentage points or 792,000 people.

When the SPM threshold selector is changed to 200% of the SPM threshold, the estimates capture the population in poverty or near poverty.

In 2023, 41.2% of the population had resources less than 200% of the SPM threshold. Work and child care expenses increased the share of people in poverty or near poverty by 2.3 percentage points or 7.6 million people.

The report, Poverty in the United States: 2023, provides detailed statistics for many other demographic groups.

The technical documentation page includes information on confidentiality protection, methodology, sampling and nonsampling error, and definitions. All comparative statements have undergone statistical testing and are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level unless otherwise noted.  

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *