What Back-to-School Trends Indicate About the Holiday Season

10/1/2013

There are several ways to read the tea leaves, and many retailers and youth marketers are attempting to link back-to-school (BTS) shopping with the holiday shopping season. And BTS’s ranking as the second-largest shopping season-forecast by Prosper Insight & Analytics for the National Retail Federation earlier in the year to reach $72.6 billion (roughly equal to 12.5% of the holiday shopping season)-reveals some product and shopping trends that are likely to carry over into the fourth quarter and 2014 for licensors and licensees. This despite the fact that the “needs”-based orientation of the BTS season shifts to a “wants” mind-set in time for the holidays.

Product Trends

Crayola’s Warren Schorr outlines three major product trends he sees continuing beyond this year’s holiday shopping season:

  • Neon. “It’s everywhere. Not just in clothing. It’s in school supplies, notebooks, crayons, markers.”
  • Scent. “Scent is incorporated into a lot of products that weren’t previously thought of as leaders in innovation.” Schorr credits Mentos for starting the trend with a back-to-school pencils promotion. “But scent is now integrated into a lot of products.”
  • Customization. “Customization is a big platform for a lot of manufacturers. It’s not just about buying the pack of crayons, but can I select individual colors I want? It’s the ability to buy the story the way I want it, customize it the way I want it.

“What we’re not seeing is a lot of product innovation,” Schorr adds. “Most of the innovation we’re seeing is coming from commercialization strategies” not from new features or brand attributes.

Shopping Trends

Prosper’s Pam Goodfellow noted, during a webinar hosted by YMA’s sister publication The Licensing Letter, that three out of 10 U.S. consumers shop for back-to-school items, while nine out of 10 shop for the fourth-quarter holidays. The difference in shopper demographics-essentially moms for BTS items versus most consumers for holidays-makes it difficult to compare the two shopping seasons, she cautioned.

Both Goodfellow and Crayola’s Schorr point to the different focuses of BTS and holiday spending: BTS shopping, they agree, is about needs-based purchases (apparel, backpacks, and school supplies), while holiday shopping relies on discretionary spending and “wants” (apparel, gift cards, video games/books/music, and toys). Adds Schorr, “BTS is much more brand-driven, holiday is all about content-what’s happening, what’s new…. The value equation is very different.”

BTS shoppers are cautious and practical, Goodfellow adds, while holiday shoppers are more budget-minded and promotion-driven.

For BTS items, “parents are watching the sales, watching the promotions, and they’re buying basics early,” Schorr explains. “That’s when they buy what they know is going to be on the BTS list. But they’re going to wait until the end of August until the kids go back to school and up to the second week of school to find out what’s needed for that particular classroom.”

Channels and the Shopping Experience

Online shopping is noticeably more prominent for holiday shopping than BTS shopping, with more than 50% of holiday shoppers expecting to buy some gifts online-compared to about 35% of BTS shoppers who anticipated shopping online, according to Prosper. Discounters and department stores top shoppers’ lists for both seasons.

Showrooming is not likely to decrease for holiday shoppers; for BTS shoppers, 43% of tablet owners and 35% of smartphone owners said they planned to research products and compare prices during the BTS shopping season, according to Prosper.

SOURCES: Crayola, Warren Schorr, VP Licensing, 1100 Church Ln., Easton, PA 18044; 610-253-6272, x4723; wschorr@crayola.com; www.crayola.com.

Prosper Mobile Insights, Pamela Goodfellow, 400 W. Wilson Bridge, #200, Columbus, OH 43085; 614-846-0146; pam@goprosper.com; www.goprosper.com.

The Licensing Letter, EPM Communications, Ira Mayer, President, 19 W. 21st St., #303, New York, NY 10010; 212-941-0099; imayer@epmcom.com; www.epmcom.com.

© 2013 Business Valuation Resources, LLC (BVR). May not be reproduced without written consent of publisher.

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