Despite four pending criminal cases pending against former President Donald Trump, the Republican primary voters have rallied around him. But would him being convicted affect voter preferences come November?
Yahoo News/YouGov surveys have tracked the preferences in the upcoming rematch of Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, Trump has a one-point (45% to 44%) lead among registered voters in the poll conducted late January. And a tie (44%) on the average of all the surveys conducted since August 2023. Four surveys conducted between August 2023 and January 2024, asked the hypothetical question: How would they voted “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime? And he is the GOP nominee?” On each poll, support for Trump lowered on the hypothetical, giving Biden a narrow lead among all registered voters, a range of 4 to 9 points. The average result across the polls was a Biden lead over Trump of 40% to 46% in the scenario that Trump is convicted of a serious crime.
That shift implies trouble for the former President, but it may not be the Achilles’ heel that some speculate. With any hypothetical poll question, caution should always be called for. But a lesson from the Bill Clinton Impeachment 25 years ago suggests we should be very wary of the latest results about a potential conviction of Trump.
In December 1998, the U.S house of Representative approved articles of impeachment against President Clinton. He was charged with “lying under oath and obstructing justice in connection with a sexual harassment lawsuit and an affair with an unpaid intern”. Throughout the year CBS News tracked opinions about it all. They found that approval for Clinton remained high, varying between 59% and 72% of Americans from February to December 1998. And that support for the U.S House vote in favor of impeachment was between 30% and 40% from October to December.
From fall 1998 to early 1999, CBS News asked voters “given what you know” would it be better for the country if Bill Clinton resigned or if he finished his term? Just before the House impeachment vote, they asked a hypothetical: “If the full House votes to send impeachment articles to the Senate for a trial, then do you think it would be better for the country if Bill Clinton resigned from office or not?”
With the first question in the months leading up to the vote, fewer wanted a resignation (between 23% and 38%) than finish his term, (between 59% and 73%)*
However, support for resignation was much higher on the hypothetical,. On a survey conducted from December 14-17 1998, 41% favored the resignation should the House vote to send articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial. 12 points more than had said earlier in the very same survey. Without the hypothetical, 29% said it would be better for the country if Clinton resigned. A second CBS tracking poll at the time found similar results, showing 13 point increase in support for Clintons resignation on the hypothetical.
All of this is to say, that the hypothetical results were very different. At face value, they predicted support for Clintons resignation should the House vote to send articles of impeachment to the Senate. But when the house did send the articles on December 19, 1998 CBS did an immediate follow-up survey and support for resignation did not in crease now that the articles had been sent. Only 31% said it would be better for the country if Clinton resigned and 66% said he should finish his term.
Not only did the hypothetical increase in support of resignation fail to materialize, it actually went down percentage points on two successive CBS News surveys conducted weeks later, 28% on January 1-3, 1999 and 29% on January 10-13, 1999 and the impeachment moved forward in the Senate.
Recalls Kathy Frankovic, former director for CBS News and now a consultant for YouGov; “One of the notable tings about 1998 was the expectation that throughout the year, Clinton would lose support. That expectation of change made 1998 our busiest year in terms of the number of polls we did, setting a record that I’m not sure has yet been surpassed at CBS News.”
The change people expected didn’t come causing some of Frankovic’s colleagues to “feel cheated by the public”. However the lack of change was consistent with the solid support the president held throughout the charges, infestations and revelations.
Frankovic says it is an important lessons to have “healthy and justified skepticism about hypothetical questions”. Rather than treating the questions as forces, to focus on what they may tell about voter attitudes right now. Considering implications of the question on voter preferences “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime.”
The registered voters who prefer Trump (89%) say they would still vote for him in 2024, regardless of convictions. That loyalty will be likely be taken into account by Republican officeholders. IF they support Trump after a conviction their influence could convince more conflicted persons to back Trump as well.
Most of the net shift comes from movement away from Trump, 4 percentage points, on average, across the surveys. Biden support increase only by one point and that comes mostly from undecided voters. Just one half of the one percent of the voters say they would switch from Trump to Biden on the hypothetical.
219 respondents who support Trump say they wouldn’t “if he was convicted of a serious crime.” Allowing the following differences to be identified:
- 42% describe themselves as moderate (36%) or liberal (6%) compared to just 22% of those who stay with Trump.
- 40% initially identify as Independents (30%) or Democrats (10%) compared to just 25% of those who stay with Trump.
- 28% say they either voted for Biden (15%) or did not vote (13%) in 2020 compared to just 8% of those who stay with Trump.
- 38% either have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion of Trump (28%) or say they don’t know (10%) compared to just 11% combined for those who stay with Trump.
- Only 31% say they follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, compared to 59% of those who stay with Trump.
- 51% are between the ages of 18 and 44, compared to 26% of those who stay with Trump.
Not a prediction of any sort of outcome, these results do tell the Trump backers who are conflicted and who may change their minds on him should be convicted. Or they may not.
Says Frankovic; “The country has been locked into their opinions about Trump (and Biden) and those opinions may not change-despite peoples answers to the hypothetical questions. It’s possible for people to say a conviction would change their minds, but when/if that happens, it’s possible (even likely) that it won’t matter at all.”
*Results obtained by YouGov from the Roper Center archives