The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its annual report, Poverty in the United States: 2023, which found the 2023 national official poverty rate of children under 18 was higher than the child Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM).
But was that the case in every state?
California, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey were the only four states where the SPM child poverty rate was not statistically lower than the official+ child poverty rate (which for this analysis includes unrelated individuals under 15). The official+ rate was higher than the child SPM rate in 46 states and the District of Columbia.
Today is Child Poverty Day and the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty and we’re releasing findings of a new analysis showing that the SPM rate was lower than the official rate in 46 states and the District of Columbia for the combined years of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
The SPM and official poverty measures each provide distinct indicators of the nation’s economic well-being.
The SPM broadens the official poverty measure by accounting for government programs designed to assist low-income families that are not included in the official poverty rate.
It also includes necessary expenses and federal and state taxes and credits like the Child Tax Credit – and considers geographic variation in housing costs and housing tenure (whether one rents or owns their home with or without a mortgage) in poverty thresholds, while the official poverty measure does not.
Today is Child Poverty Day and the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty and we’re releasing findings of a new analysis showing that the SPM rate was lower than the official+ rate in 46 states and the District of Columbia for the combined years of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) is the official source of national poverty estimates. To create state-level estimates, the Census Bureau recommends using 3-year averages for additional statistical reliability.
Figure 1 details 3-year average child poverty rates for each state from 2021 to 2023 for the SPM and the official+ poverty measure.
The national 3-year average child official+ poverty rate and SPM from 2021 to 2023 were 15.1% and 10.4%, respectively.
In 2021, the national child SPM rate was its lowest ever at 5.2%, which was mostly attributed to the 1-year expanded Child Tax Credit. The rate increased to 12.4% in 2022 and 13.7% in 2023, after the expansion expired.
During the same period, the annual child official+ poverty rate ranged from 14.9% to 15.3%. (the rates are not statistically different).
How it varied by state:
- Utah was among the states with the lowest official+ poverty rate (7.0%) and New Mexico among the states with the highest (27.4%).
- Nebraska had one of the lowest SPM poverty rates (3.6%) and District of Columbia had one of the highest (15.5%).
- There were no states where the child SPM rate was statistically higher than the official+ child poverty rate.
More official+ and SPM rates by states and by major age categories can be found in the supplementary tables for the annual report.
Figure 2 maps the differences between the two measures.
SPM rates may be lower in some states for several reasons, including differences in housing costs, noncash benefits and tax credits.
For instance, many programs use the official poverty measure to determine access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and other noncash federal programs that are included in the SPM.
States with high official+ poverty rates may have children eligible for these programs who, in turn, might receive benefits captured in the SPM measure. As a result, they may not be categorized as poor under the SPM.
Another potential driver of differences between the two measures are the inclusion of tax credit refunds in SPM resources.
The federal Child Tax Credit was expanded for a single year in 2021 (the first year of this 3-year analysis). The credit was increased and was made fully refundable. Many states also have their own Child Tax Credit and the Census Bureau tax model accounts for states that had recently added new tax credits.
In 2023 there were eight states with new child tax credits: Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Vermont.
Poverty in the United States: 2023 provides more details on the impacts of policies and programs on the SPM.
More information on confidentiality protection, methodology, sampling and nonsampling error, and definitions is available in the technical documentation. Information about methods to calculate measures of statistical uncertainty (standard errors and margins of error) for supplemental estimates is included in the Source and Accuracy Statement, found in Appendix H of the technical documentation.
All comparative statements have undergone statistical testing and are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level unless otherwise noted.