Americans are becoming more likely to say that former President (and current republican nominee) Donald Trump, 78, is too old to be President. However, that number is still lower than the number who said the same thing about President Joe Biden, 81, before he dropped out. Few have similar concerns about Kamala Harris, 60, who replaced Biden. An increasing number say it is fair game to discuss a candidates physical health.
Since the start of the 2024 Election cycle, Americans have been getting more nervous about how Trump’s age may affect his ability to serve as Commander in Chief. The Stanford-Arizona State-Yale Election Panel (SAY24) conducted by YouGov, interviews the same group every four weeks to track changes over time. Between February and October of this year, the share saying Trump is too old to be President rose from 35% to 44% While the share saying he is not too old dropped from 53% to 46%.
This is still below the concern levels had for Biden when he was the presumptive Democratic nominee. Between February and July of this year, when Biden withdrew to make way for Harris, the share saying he was too old grew from 63% to 70%. In the same timeframe, the share saying he wasn’t too old fell from 25% to 18%. This means that the changes in attitude towards their ages has been relatively similar. The belief Biden was too old grew 7 points in five months while the belief Trump is too old grew 9 points in eight months. While a majority of Americans believed Biden was too old at the start of the year, only a third believed the same of Trump. This means that the share saying Trump is too old is within the margin of error of the share who say he is not.
While there is a relatively even split of who will say Trump is too old vs who wont say it, more Americans are concerned with how his age will affect his health. 56% say Trump’s health and age would impact his ability to serve. This from a poll conduct3ed October 18-24-including 36% who say a Trump presidency would be severely limited by his health and age. Only 33% of Americans believe Trump’s health and age wouldn’t impact a second term at all.
All of this is divided by party-as are most beliefs about Trump, Biden or Harris. Democrats are the most likely to believe Trump would be severely limited by health and age-71%. 15% say it would have a smaller effect. 9% of Democrats say it would not impact a second Trump presidency. By comparison, 66% of Republicans say he would be unaffected, while 29% say it would have some impact. 31% of Independents say Trump would be severely limited, 20% say it would have a smaller effect and 26% say he would be unaffected.
Those who have seen the former president speak in the last month are more likely to express concerns about Trump’s age and health. 60% say it would impact his ability to perform his duties as president. 40% who haven’t seen him speak in the last month say the same. A larger share of people who haven’t seen him speak who say they are unsure of the effect of health and age (29%) than those who have seen him speak and remain unsure (6%). This would seem to indicate that Trump’s recent speeches are helping Americans make up their minds about his health. Just maybe not in the way his campaign would hope.
Most Americans (62%) believe Vice President Harris’ age and health would have no impact on her ability to perform her duties as President. Just 16% believe it would have a small effect and 9% believe it would limit her severely. This is again, divided by party but Americans of all parties are more likely to say health and age would have no impact on her abilities: 82% of Democrats, 56% of independents and 48% of Republicans say a Harris presidency would not be affected by her health or age. 13% of Democrats, 22% of Independents and 39% of Republicans believe there would be some impact.
Americans who have seen the Vice President speak in the last month are more likely to say her health and age would have no impact on her presidency. 67% compared to 46% of those who haven’t seen her speak. But no more likely to say it would have an impact 924% of both groups). In contrast to Trump, who’s recent speeches spark concern, Harris’ seem more likely to allay concerns about her health than to stoke them.
Americans if they think the former president has experienced a cognitive decline. Views on the topic are evenly split, 40% believe he is experiencing a significant or modest decline, while 40% believe he is not suffering a decline. The remaining 20% are unsure.
Partisan politics are in play here again: while 81% of Harris voters believe Trump has experienced a modest or significant decline, only 6% of Trump voters say the same. Comparatively, 85% of Trump voters believe he hasn’t suffered a decline while only 5% of Harris voters say the same. Most supporters of non Trump or Harris candidates (59%) will say Trump has had a decline in cognitive abilities, while only 24% will say he hasn’t. Undecided voters are about as likely to say he has had a decline (36%) as they are to say they’re unsure (36%) but the share who say he hasn’t had a decline is only 28%.
While 46% of Americans say Harris has shared enough about her health, only 30% will say the same about Trump. However, 21% say Harris isn’t sharing enough while 44% say the same about Trump.
Most Democrats (80%) say Harris has shared enough information with the public while 12% believe Trump has. 57% of Republicans say Trump has shared enough information while 21% believe Harris has. Independents are more likely to say Harris is transparent than to view Trump the same way: 38% of Independents say Harris is sharing enough while 18% say she isn’t. 24% believe Trump has vs 40% of Independents who say he has not.
Most Americans agree it is fair for the media to question a candidate’s physical health. This has been the case for 3 election cycles. 72% of Americans today say it is far to question the health of the candidate. 61% said the same in 2020. In 2016 68% said the same. Those who said it was unfair have been in the minority consistently: 13% in 2024, and 29% in both 2020 and 2016. 79% of Democrats today believe it is fair to question a candidate’s health, while 69% of Republicans say the same.