Assuming a constant rate of net international migration (birth, death, and immigration), the U.S. will become a minority-majority — in which emerging majorities outnumber Whites — in 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This revises the Bureau’s 2008 prediction that the switch would occur in 2042 and returns it to the original mark following the 2000 Census. Among children under age 18, the population will not become a minority-majority until 2031, instead of 2023 as previously forecast.
The slumping U.S. economy is partly at fault for the revised forecast. Immigration is down during the recession — the Pew Hispanic Center reported that 2009 was the first year in more than a decade for which immigration from Mexico slowed (see “Mexican-Born Population In U.S. Dips…” in Research Alert, August 7, 2009, p. 8). The poor job market and struggling U.S. dollar have made the country less attractive to immigrants.
The aging White population is predicted to fall to 49.9% by 2050, down from 65.2% in 2010. The Black population is predicted to remain relatively stable at 13.2%, up from 12.9%. The Hispanic and Asian populations are projected to explode. Hispanics will account for 27.8% of the population, up from 15.8%, and the Asian population will grow to 6.1%, up from 4.4%.
The average age of an American will
rise to 39.7 in 2050, up from 37.1 in 2010, largely because of the aging White population. The average age of a White American in 2050 will be 45, making them the oldest group. Asians are the second oldest with a projected average age of 42. Blacks will have an average age of 40, followed distantly by Hispanics, with an average age of 33. The youngest group of Americans are those of two or more races, with an average age of 25. [Demographics]
Source: “United States Population Projections: 2000 to 2050,” U.S. Census Bureau, Public Information Office, 400 Silver Hill Rd., Washington, DC 20233; 301-763-3030; pio@census.gov; www.census.gov. Price: Available online at no charge.
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