Only a slim majority of registered voters in the United States think their representative in Congress deserves re-election (53%). This is similar to pre-election polls in recent midterm years, 54% in 2006, and 50% in 2018 thought their elected officials deserved another go at the job. Though, voters were much more enthusiastic in 1998 and 2002.
Midterms tend to be when the majority party will lose seats, most recently the Republican Party suffered a set back during the 2018 midterms resulting in the Democrats having a very slim majority in the House of Representatives. Gallup national mood polls indicate that this year, the Republicans have a more favorable feeling and may do quite well in November.
The poll, which ran from June 1-20 did not indicate if those who responded to it where represented by a Republican or a Democrat in the House. Though, the poll stated those who openly identify as Democrats or Democratic-Leaning Independent were far more likely to say their representative deserves re-election than those who identify as Republican.
77% of Voters say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election, but voters can only decide their own representatives fates and not those of other districts or states.
With midterms fast approaching the 2024 Presidential election is starting to become very real in many Americans minds, and at the moment only 33% of registered voters say President Biden deserves re-election at this moment. Which is much lower than his current 41% job approval rating. Many incumbent Presidents lack support for a second term during midterm years. In April 2018, 37% of voters thought Donald Trump deserved a second term. George W. Bush, however had 69% of voters on his side in the 2002 midterms and won his bid for a second term in 2004. Both Obama and Clinton had numbers in the 40s in their first term midterm years but recovered enough to secure a second term, Trump did not.
The poll indicates and many political pundits would agree, that many Republicans will gain seats this fall.
SOURCE: Gallup